Lakeshore Analytics

Rogers Park and Humboldt Park share some similarities: both are areas that were considered “edge neighborhoods”, up and coming during the housing boom; both were affordable alternatives to Lakeview on the North Side or Wicker Park on the west side; and both have stuggled with crime and the perception of crime in the past. Both offered developers inexpensive land on which to build new or affordable existing buildings to convert.

The supply of new condominium conversions was greater in Rogers Park, but both neighborhoods have been slammed by the housing recession. In Rogers Park in the first quarter of 2006, the median selling price of a condominium was $278,875. In 2006, 336 new condominium units sold, most around $200,000 to $275,000–affordable for those priced out of Lakeview, in which a condominium could be over $100,000 more.

As of last quarter, the median selling price of a condominium in Rogers Park was $62,000. Could this have been a quirk, representing a low median of just a handful of sales? No. Over 150 units sold in Rogers Park last quarter. Half were for less than $62,000, which means that well over half the sales were the result of short sales or foreclosures. Two quarters ago, 218 units sold for a median of $66,250.

It has been a similar story in Humboldt Park. In late 2008, condominiums sold for a median of over $300,000. Even as recently as 2010, some high sales pushed the median back up to $260,000. This was followed by quarterly price drops of 26%, 39%, 62%, 58%, and 63%. At the end of the year, the median selling price was $71,000.

Perhaps more remarkably, the upper quartile — the point above which 25% of units sold — was $103,500. That means that three-quarters of the condo units sold in Humboldt Park last quarter were for about $100,000 or less.

Last year finished strong for several north side neighborhoods, most notably North Center, which saw the median price of a house rise 33% over the fourth quarter of 2010.

The neighborhood saw a spike in sales in the third quarter, which calmed down in the fourth quarter; however, high selling prices continued through the end of the year. The median sale in Q4 2011 was $700,000, which is higher than at any point since we’ve been tracking data (which goes back to early 2006).

Condominiums and townhomes have held value in North Center, staying at approximately a median of $350,000 since 2007. The median last quarter was exactly $350,000, down just a bit from the previous quarter’s $375,000.

(There are a few coveted school districts in North Center, which may help explain the increase in house sales in Q3, which covers July, August, and September.)

Chicago home sales slumped a little in the fourth quarter last year, but remained slightly above their year-ago levels.

• 7,618 houses sold, about 5% above year-ago levels but 17% below the strong third-quarter reading
• The median selling price of houses citywide was $155,000, slightly below last quarter and below the same quarter last year
• 4,525 condominiums or townhomes sold, about 4% above year-ago levels but 22% below the strong third-quarter reading
• The median selling price of condominiums and townhomes was $209,500, 14.5% below last quarter and 13.5% below a year ago.

The median selling price of condominiums is the lowest since well before the housing boom (before neighborhood level data were available).

These market stats, as well as similar stats and charts for 20 top neighborhoods, are available in Chicago Housing Quarterly.

The Case-Shiller Index shows that Chicago-area homes have continued to lose value through August 2011, even as the 10-city and 20-city national indices show a pause in plummeting values.

The 10-city index and the 20-city index arrested their free-fall in May 2009. At that point, they were 33% and 32% off their peaks, reached in April 2006. Since then, the two indices have moved sideways, increasing slightly until January 2010, before sliding down a few percentage points by August 2011.

Chicago also experienced a momentary pause in June 2009, but they posted just three months of increases before resuming their fall, which continued steadily through July 2011. In a time where the national home values have remained essentially flat (June 2009 through August 2011), Chicago area values have fallen another 10%.

Homebuilder confidence for single family sales is at its highest level in 18 months, according to the latest NAHB confidence index. The index was higher than 20 in only one month since August 2007. Still, October’s index value of 20 still indicates the majority of homebuilders see the market as “poor.”

The index for traffic of prospective customers stood at 15, the highest level since September 2009.

The index is derived by surveying homebuilders and asking whether they view conditions as good, fair or poor. The survey asks if traffic of prospective buyers is high, average, or low. Index values below 50 indicate that more survey respondents rate conditions poor than good.

Building permits in Chicago continue to average a paltry 20 single family units, though a few quarters have seen some spikes in multifamily permitting. From 1998 through 2006, the city averaged about 100 single family permits per month. We have been under 25 for 33 straight months, dating to January 2009.

Multifamily permits steadily increased through the housing boom. While they are still a fraction of the typical month in the boom, there have been several months in the 400′s during this recession. More than single family houses, multifamily unit permits tend to be sporadic.

Due to the erratic nature of monthly permits, the chart shows the rolling three-month average.